Mehmet Ali Birand - English
Mehmet Ali Birand - English
Mehmet Ali Birand - EnglishYazarın Tüm Yazıları

It seems we are afraid of cease-fire

To understand who has what business we need to follow developments more closely.

The winds blow in the direction of PKK terror decreasing and the Kurdish issue losing its former weight.

There are preparations going on for 6 months now. Those of you following my articles have surely read about it.

First steps were taken toward negotiations between Turkey and the northern Iraqi Kurdish administration.

Then news from Washington, Arbil and Kandil were added.

There is the impression nowadays that an opportunity has arisen.

The chief of General Staff says we entered an environment in which the PKK will cease their attacks and take their hands off the trigger.

The prime minister works on the same theme. The president frequently says "an historical opportunity."

Even in Kandil a similar attitude is echoed. What I don’t understand is instead of being happy about it, we are scared.

There is an atmosphere as if we are losing this country and everybody has joined forces to save it from this disaster. I panic listening to the opposition.

And especially Bahçeli’s speeches scare the hell out of us. And Deniz Baykal does too. I look at the media and the chaos there is even worse.

While reading some, I get the impression as if they are afraid of the PKK putting down its weapons. An atmosphere of concern is created because some people gain when the PKK commits murder and Turkey sacrifices soldiers.

Now it’s time to ask the basic question:

"Are we going to miss out on the Great Opportunity?" Will we benefit from these opportunities before us by making tiny calculations orÉ In my article tomorrow I want to share with you this subject. Everything started out well. It was so good that it was hard to believe.

President Gül’s historic visit to Yerevan signaled that all of a sudden the border would open.

President Obama, if relations get back to normal between Turkey and Armenia, will get rid of his genocide promises, which he made before elections and thus would get out of the situation without spoiling his relationship with his much valued ally Turkey.

Relations getting back to normal means that without restrictions on both sides, firstly borders open and diplomatic relations are established, and discussions start among a mutual commission regarding other issues (foremost the genocide issue).

Everything went well when Azerbaijan made its point.

It said, "We thought we were siblings, what is going on?" and made Turkey take a step back. Azerbaijan stated that without solving the Karabakh issue there can be no mention of Turkey opening its border to Armenia.

End of the process?

To tell the truth, from their viewpoint they were right. For, for years we reflected this policy and within an atmosphere of brotherhood-friendship we bought cheap petroleum and natural gas from international markets. You see, fine politics didn’t work.

So what will happen from now on? Will Turkey retreat from the principles agreed with Armenia?

Will the opening of the border be forgotten?

No it won’t but things will get more difficult.

Now there is only one prerequisite for Ankara to escape this vicious cycle.

And this prerequisite is to knock on the door of the White House and say to President Obama, "We desire it very much but to bring our relations with Armenia back to normal, there needs to be a simultaneous solution to the Karabakh issue.

Or else we will lose Azerbaijan, which the public will not accept." Actually things have gotten a little more complicated and tight. But whatever happens this is the right way.

As Washington remains a bystander to the Karabakh issue, it is impossible for Turkey to solve the Armenian issue first. Obama either provides a middle path or the genocide draft will again be discussed in detail in the future.
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