Başbuğ will change the agenda today

Especially the announcement of this speech up front and the extension of an invitation to those who the military does not approve of, makes the situation even more dramatic. Taking a quick look at the period we are leaving behind shows the importance of the timing.

The AKP, after the famous announcement made by the Turkish Armed Forces on April 27, 2007, won elections with a 47 percent majority and changed the balance in the relationship between the military and the civilians. And this change continues at full speed. Especially two developments have deepened this process. The first of the two developments is the appearance of the so-called Military Coup Diaries which are said to uncover the efforts of some generals to overthrow the AKP administration. Second is the increase of the number of retired military crew in the Ergenekon case. The impression persists that especially retired military crew are constantly preparing a conspiracy. In summary, the last three years have paved the pay for an erosion of respect for the TSK and the effectiveness of the institution to an important extent in the eyes of at least some part of the public.

The General Staff lapsed into silence during these years. Gen. Başbuğ came before us as a commander who did not speak out loud as long as it wasn’t necessary, contrary to old times. For this attitude he was applauded by the liberals, but tension increased among TSK staff and the public as their chief kept quiet. The TSK staff wants the first chief to come forward and defend the institution and foremost those generals taken into custody in the frame of the Ergenekon case.

One reason for this request is that an important part of the TSK crew perceives all attempts against the AKP as normal. Similarly, they perceived some "applications" of on-duty military staff or illegal actions of "groups including civil or retired military staff that supported the TSK" during the struggle against the PKK in the 90s also as normal.

In this case they also increasingly expect Gen. Başbuğ to come forward and defend the institution. The military public expects an "enough now" to be spoken in an effective way. The TSK is curious what type of reaction will be exhibited by Gen. Başbuğ. Will he exhibit a democratic attitude like Özkök or a brisk reaction like Kıvrıkoğlu. Expectations in the civil public have also increased.

What does the deepening and history-investigating Ergenekon case mean?

Will old accounts be opened?

Will events in the Southeast also be investigated?

How will the TSK react to all these developments?

Gen. Başbuğ really is in a difficult position.

Part of the civil public expects the chief of general staff to "leave behind his former attitude, accept mistakes in former applications rather than show brisk reaction and open a new page in relations between the military and civilians." A fairly large number of people believe he should start being defensive because saying the staff should not become upset is not convincing anymore. The other part of the civil public and the military desire that the chief of staff step forward and roar, draw red lines and stop the Ergenekon attack immediately. Gen. Başbuğ will prefer to find a compromise between the two approaches. It is expected that he in general will draw attention to the message of "not blaming the TSK for some illegal operations in the 90s."

According to sources who know about the main points of the speech and Gen. Başbuğ’s attitude, the most annoying aspect for the general staff is the tendency of the Ergenekon case to dig up the past.

It is expected that Başbuğ will warn against dangers arising from blaming the TSK for illegal actions of certain groups supporting security forces against the PKK in times of fierce terror, in which case nobody will enter into an effective struggle in the Southeast. The speech that is mainly about negative effects of the Ergenekon case on the TSK is outlined as follows:

- The TSK should not be held responsible for civilians who entered into illegal actions while supporting the military.

- We are prepared to be held responsible for TSK crew members who were involved in illegal actions.

- The TSK does not protect their crew members who were involved with gangs. We are against all illegal applications and will punish those responsible.

Gen. Başbuğ’s speech will, no matter from which angle you look at it, bring extremely important developments and shape the upcoming period to an important extent.