Turkey’s capital locked in the AKP ruling as speculations intensify

Ankara has been locked in political turmoil since the closure case against the ruling AKP was filed. The million-dollar question, "What will happen?” is being asked everywhere but it is almost impossible to answer. Foreign diplomats as well as Turkish officials have adopted a "wait and see" approach.

Uncertainty seems to be the "key word" as speculations, rumors and scenarios are manufactured and circulated in almost every corner of Turkey's capital. The issues that political and diplomatic circles in Ankara agree on are fewer than those that they disagree.

One of the issues that people agree on is that the likelihood of AKP's closure has increased with the headscarf ruling of the Constitutional Court. The court annulled a government-sponsored law lifting the headscarf ban, citing the arrangement harms the country’s secularism principle in early June. Nine members of the court voted for the annulment, while two voted against.

Although court members have cut all communication with the outside world, it is not a secret that they feel incredibly uncomfortable with the pressure placed on them. The claims that the deputy chairman of the court, Osman Paksut, had been followed and illegally tapped by security forces increased the uneasiness felt by court members.

As everybody looks for an answer to the "What will happen" question, a new development raised eyebrows in Turkey. A new political party, known as "New Party", was established on Friday with the "sun" as the party logo.

The AKP had long denied officially that it is in preparations to form a new party but some media reports and speculations suggested they are, and a "sun" would be the emblem of the party to replace the AKP.

NUMBER OF MPS BANNED

The other critical issue regarding the court's ruling is that whether a political ban would be put in place, and if so, how many AKP deputies would be affected. The AKP has 340 deputies in parliament, and the top prosecutor demanded a political ban for more than 30 party MPs.

The number of banned AKP MPs will be decisive in regard to possible early general or by-elections. If less than 26 AKP deputies are banned then holding early elections would depend on the decision of the successor of the AKP, which is expected to remain in power.

However if more than 26 AKP MPs are banned then, according to the constitution, by-elections should be called to replace the empty chairs in parliament.

In either case, the AKP or its successor could hold early general elections. Turkey is scheduled to hold local elections in spring of 2009 and if early general elections or by-elections are to be held, then it could be merged with local elections, which would be schedule for an earlier date.

ERDOGAN'S SITUATION

Another tricky point is whether the court will ban Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan from politics or not. If he is banned, according to the law, he cannot "be a leader, or a member, or a founder of a political party".

On the other hand there is nothing in the law that openly would prevent him running as an independent candidate. The head of the High Electoral Board has also confirmed that Erdogan could run as an independent candidate, as the debate among the legal experts continues as to whether he can run or not.

If Erdogan is banned and decides to run as an independent candidate, he would not be able to participate in the by-elections. The only way for Erdogan to run as an independent candidate is through calling early general elections. Therefore it is more likely for the AKP or its successor, to decide to hold early general elections, instead of by-elections.

However Erdogan's potential independent candidacy will not be as smooth as it seems. Once Erdogan loses his immunity with the political ban, he is expected to face an investigation into corruption allegations, a situation that could potentially result in preventing him from running as an independent candidate.

Another scenario is that the AKP would call early elections regardless of the court's ruling. Even if the court does not close the AKP, the party would want to reassure the public support.

OTHER POLITICAL MOVEMENTS

One of the biggest challenges that the AKP would likely to face in the case of closure is to hold the party together. The AKP is like an umbrella party, which its leadership has its roots in banned political Islamist movements, while it consists of center right politicians, former leftists, and Kurdish leaders and liberals.

It would be difficult for the leadership of the AKP or its successor to hold those politicians within the party, if it is closed. At the moment it is reported that some MPs consider to quit the party.

As a reflection of such concerns, Erdogan warned in a party group meeting that "those who get off the train would not be able to get back on".

On the other hand some former political figures are also in preparations for forming new parties. Former Prime Minister Mesut Yilmaz, who is currently an independent deputy in parliament, had announced that he is in efforts to form a new center-right party.

Another leftist politician is also holding preparatory talks with other politicians to form a center party.

It would not be wrong to expect some of the AKP MPs, who do not have their roots in political Islam, to leave the AKP and join one of the new political movements, in the case a closure ruling is handed down.

ECONOMIC PROBLEMS

The capital Ankara has always been the "brain" of Turkey with politics and bureaucracy, while Istanbul has been the "heart" which pumps the financial blood to the veins of the country.

The business world, as well as investors and executives in Istanbul are closely monitoring the situation in Ankara. Many investment decisions or longer term plans have been shelved, as the uncertainty sours the atmosphere.

More importantly the lack of a strong political leadership has been preventing the long-awaited decisions or reforms to tackle the risks that the economy faces. Inflation is on rise, and investors look for a clear decision on the future shape of relations with the IMF, which had been seen as an anchor of the economy since the economic crisis in 2001, amid deteriorating global sentiment.

Besides the economic issues, Turkey also faces an important period in international relations. Ankara has been mediating between Israel-Syria, tension is on the rise on the Iranian issue and Turkey's fight continues against the terrorist organization PKK.

Many issues wait to be addressed, as Ankara has dead-locked in the political turmoil. The only thing that looks to be certain is the continuation of uncertainty in the near term. Every scenario discussed here could turn out to be wrong or vice-a-versa.

One thing is certain, each party involved with the issue, the judiciary, politicians, government, and opposition, want to end the uncertainty and reach a conclusion as soon as possible.