Sedat Ergin: Israil’s Perception Of A Kurdish State

Ergin quotes the comments of retired Ambassador Dr. Alon Liel from Israel who attended “Future Searches” conference in Antalya last weekend.“Liel sees the possibility of partition of Iraq as 50%, even more than 50%. Liel bases this prediction on factors such as, the aims and achievements of Kurdish groups there, and Kurds’ close partnership during and after the war with the U.S.A."Liel’s ideas continue like this: “Even if no division emerges in Iraq, the coming regime would be very weak, contrary to the Saddam regime. The U.S. does not have enough energy and potential to remain in Iraq for long to support this weak regime. There is a risk here. There is a threat of collapse of the emerging regime. In fact, Iraq’s domestic developments are in this direction.“Scenarios involved, in case of a division in Iraq include:The existence in the North may have good relations with Israel. Kurds had good relations with Israel in the 1960s, whereas Iraq’s center and south have enmity with Israel. West would stay close to the Northern part of the country, comparative to other regions. At this point, the level of pro-Kurdish activities in Europe should be given attention. These pro-Kurdish activities would strengthen Europe’s relation with the North.At the end, in case of a partition Iraq scenario, there may emerge international powers that would support the identity emerging in the North.” “Liel warns Turkey at the end of his analysis and says: Turkey should prepare herself to these possibilities. You do not seem to be prepared for now. Sometimes you may confront undesired conditions. “Liel adds that: Turkey is still the most important actor in the Iraqi equation. Turkey is the main actor that holds Iraq intact, at the moment. If Turkey abandons this position, the likelihood of Iraq’s division, will increase. Us long as Turkey maintains this stance, so will we.” As Ergin asked, “If Northern Iraqi Kurds declare independence, would the international community recognize Kurds?” Liel replied; “I do not expect the U.S. to recognize Kurds as long as Turks oppose strongly. But, maybe one or two Scandinavian countries would recognize such a move. According to me, Turkey has the power to prevent this, as in the past.”�