Jobs, crisis hurt ruling party in elections: Poll
Güncelleme Tarihi:
Milliyet
Oluşturulma Tarihi: Nisan 14, 2009 00:00
ISTANBUL - A&G polling company, which enjoys a sturdy reputation in the country and was the firm that predicted local election results most accurately, says the ruling AKP suffered its first drop in percentage of votes in the March 29 elections due to rising unemployment and the effects of the economic crisis, citing results from its latest poll.
Rising unemployment and the economic crisis are the main causes behind the ruling Justice and Development Party, or AKP’s, loss of support in the March 29 local elections, according to a survey conducted by A&G polling company.
The survey of 1,876 people in 30 provinces was conducted April 4 and 5 by A&G, headed by Adil Gür who predicted the closest result for the local elections.
According to the study, the top two reasons for the AKP’s loss of support from 46.6 percent in the July 2007 general election to 38.9 percent in the March 29 local elections were unemployment at 62.5 percent, followed by the economic crisis at 57.2 percent.
While the AKP is still the leading party, opposition Republican People’s Party, or CHP, and the Nationalist Movement Party, or MHP, made serious gains, receiving 23 and 16 percent of the votes respectively.
Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s aggressive actions and corruption allegations, 31 percent and 29.5 percent respectively, had a smaller role in the decrease of support, according to the poll.
The government polices on the Kurdish issue, the prime minister’s clashes with the media and the estrangement of Turkey from its Western ideals and the European Union also were listed as reasons why the support for the ruling party dropped.
When asked why they voted for the AKP, 70.6 percent said they supported its policies, followed by 57.3 percent who liked Erdoğan. Among the women especially, attraction of Erdoğan seems to have played an important part, according to the poll.
CHP voters were also asked why they had voted for that party, with 47.5 percent saying because they didn’t like the policies of the AKP. For the MHP, it was much the same, with 44.3 percent saying they voted for the party because they didn’t like the AKP.
For the pro-Kurdish Democratic Society Party, or DTP, which swept most of the Southeast, 81.3 percent of the DTP supporters among the polled said they found the party closest to their beliefs. 94.8 percent of DTP supporters told the A&G that the government’s policies toward the Kurdish issue had resulted in the loss of support for the AKP.
Disillusioned voters
According to the study, one in four voters that went to the polls on March 29 did not cast his or her ballot with wholehearted support.
Sixty-two percent of women who participated in the survey said they had cast their votes without wholehearted support. The study also showed that as household income increases, the percentage of voters who did not vote with wholehearted support increases.
Voters who wholeheartedly supported their party are the DTP and the Saadet (Felicity) Party. Seventy-five percent of those who voted for the AKP and the CHP said their support was sincere while the figures increased to 85 for the Saadet Party and 93 for the DTP. Gür, owner of A&G survey company, commenting on the results, said voters below the age of 28 supported the AKP less then the national average. He also noted that support for the AKP dropped with increasing education level.
The huge rural support for the AKP in rural areas has also dropped in favor of the CHP and the MHP, said Gür.
He said the March 29 elections showed that the economic crisis had struck at support for the AKP but the comparative success of the opposition parties should be qualified because none had become the alternative to the AKP in the eyes of the public. He also said Erdoğan himself was a major vote winner.
Gür dismissed claims that the AKP had suffered major losses in the coastal areas, noting that a comparison with the 2007 election results showed the support for the AKP had dropped incrementally in some coastal areas, with significant gains in others.
He said the loss of support for the AKP was more pronounced in certain conservative provinces like Erzurum and Kayseri, with 20.2 and 13.6 percent drop in support respectively.
A&G polling company, based in Istanbul and founded in 1997, is one of the most-quoted survey companies in Turkey and is generally viewed as unbiased.
The survey of 1,876 people in 30 provinces was conducted April 4 and 5 by A&G, headed by Adil Gür who predicted the closest result for the local elections.
According to the study, the top two reasons for the AKP’s loss of support from 46.6 percent in the July 2007 general election to 38.9 percent in the March 29 local elections were unemployment at 62.5 percent, followed by the economic crisis at 57.2 percent.
While the AKP is still the leading party, opposition Republican People’s Party, or CHP, and the Nationalist Movement Party, or MHP, made serious gains, receiving 23 and 16 percent of the votes respectively.
Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s aggressive actions and corruption allegations, 31 percent and 29.5 percent respectively, had a smaller role in the decrease of support, according to the poll.
The government polices on the Kurdish issue, the prime minister’s clashes with the media and the estrangement of Turkey from its Western ideals and the European Union also were listed as reasons why the support for the ruling party dropped.
When asked why they voted for the AKP, 70.6 percent said they supported its policies, followed by 57.3 percent who liked Erdoğan. Among the women especially, attraction of Erdoğan seems to have played an important part, according to the poll.
CHP voters were also asked why they had voted for that party, with 47.5 percent saying because they didn’t like the policies of the AKP. For the MHP, it was much the same, with 44.3 percent saying they voted for the party because they didn’t like the AKP.
For the pro-Kurdish Democratic Society Party, or DTP, which swept most of the Southeast, 81.3 percent of the DTP supporters among the polled said they found the party closest to their beliefs. 94.8 percent of DTP supporters told the A&G that the government’s policies toward the Kurdish issue had resulted in the loss of support for the AKP.
Disillusioned voters
According to the study, one in four voters that went to the polls on March 29 did not cast his or her ballot with wholehearted support.
Sixty-two percent of women who participated in the survey said they had cast their votes without wholehearted support. The study also showed that as household income increases, the percentage of voters who did not vote with wholehearted support increases.
Voters who wholeheartedly supported their party are the DTP and the Saadet (Felicity) Party. Seventy-five percent of those who voted for the AKP and the CHP said their support was sincere while the figures increased to 85 for the Saadet Party and 93 for the DTP. Gür, owner of A&G survey company, commenting on the results, said voters below the age of 28 supported the AKP less then the national average. He also noted that support for the AKP dropped with increasing education level.
The huge rural support for the AKP in rural areas has also dropped in favor of the CHP and the MHP, said Gür.
He said the March 29 elections showed that the economic crisis had struck at support for the AKP but the comparative success of the opposition parties should be qualified because none had become the alternative to the AKP in the eyes of the public. He also said Erdoğan himself was a major vote winner.
Gür dismissed claims that the AKP had suffered major losses in the coastal areas, noting that a comparison with the 2007 election results showed the support for the AKP had dropped incrementally in some coastal areas, with significant gains in others.
He said the loss of support for the AKP was more pronounced in certain conservative provinces like Erzurum and Kayseri, with 20.2 and 13.6 percent drop in support respectively.
A&G polling company, based in Istanbul and founded in 1997, is one of the most-quoted survey companies in Turkey and is generally viewed as unbiased.