Poll predicts good news for AKP, MHP
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ANKARA - The ruling Justice and Development Party’s votes will decline nationwide in local elections but still outnumber the main opposition Republican People’s Party, or CHP, according to the latest poll by the A&G Survey Company.
Ankara, however, is shaping up to be an eye-popping surprise, as the poll’s results show the Nationalist Movement Party, or MHP, gaining serious ground and taking second place in the capital with just days to go before voting begins.
When undecided voters are distributed according to party rates, 39.1 percent of the nation’s votes will be cast for AKP in the local elections March 29, the poll said. The CHP can get only 26.8, followed by the opposition Nationalist Movement Party, or MHP with 16.5 percent, according to A&G survey.
Participants were also asked their favorite party if there were general elections, 36.6 percent responded AKP and 21.8 percent said they would vote for CHP. People undecided about which party to vote for in a general election made up 13.8 percent, while 13.5 percent chose MHP.
The A&G poll said the Nationalist Movement Party, or MHP, is on a steady rise that could produce a surprise result in Ankara.
MHP mayoral candidate Mensur Yavaş had merely 14.7 percent of votes in January polls, but rose to 25.1 percent March 7 and now stands at 27.4, placing him in second, revealed A&G's latest election poll dated March 21-22. Yavaş may even catch up with the current Mayor Melih Gökçek, the candidate of the ruling Justice and Development Party, or AKP, who dropped from 40.5 to 32.2 in the same time span.
Yavaş’s other rival, CHP candidate Murat Karayalçın, also lost a considerable amount of points, down from 30.8 to 26.5. Undecided voters form a large part of total voters, with 11.9 percent. A distribution of undecided voters yields 36.5 percent for Gökçek, 31.1 percent for Yavaş, and 30.1 percent for Karayalçın, who was considered to be the only serious alternative to Gökçek just a few weeks ago.
Contrary to Ankara, no surprise is expected in Istanbul. Kadir Topbaş, the AKP’s Istanbul incumbent mayoral candidate, is far ahead of his nearest rival, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu of the CHP. Topbaş has 41 percent of votes before distributing undecided voters, dipping from the 41.8 percent he had in January.
Unlike Topbaş, who has maintained his votes as the elections approach, Kılıçdaroğlu’s vote base eroded after an initial upward trend.
A&G Survey Company is owned by Adil Gür, the former partner of Radikal daily columnist, Tarhan Erdem.