Obama's visit a push for Turkish-Armenian reconciliation

As soon as he was inaugurated, Turkey invited Obama to the summit of the initiative of Alliance of Civilizations, scheduled to take place the first week of April. Following his pledge that he will visit a Muslim country to convey his messages of reconciliation with the Islamic world during the opening months of his administration, word was out that Turkey was among the countries along with Egypt and Indonesia, for the site of that speech. After the prime minister’s Davos incident though, it was only natural to speculate that Turkey will no longer be an option. Administration officials made it clear that Turkey will not be the site of the major address that he pledged to deliver in a Muslim capital. Actually, this comes as a relief. The fact that U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton preferred to emphasize Turkey’s secular nature rather identifying it as a moderate Muslim country, comes as a relief too.

Turkey and the United States are allies not because Turkey is a moderate Muslim country, but because they share the same values and visions. (Obviously one has to set aside the Bush era.) The fact that Turkey has a Muslim population makes it a more valuable ally to Washington since it brings its insight of the Muslim world, but it is not the main basis of the relationship.

Turkey is centuries away as far as mentalities are concerned from the Muslim masses Obama wants to address. Even in their eyes, Turkey is part of the Western world not of the Eastern world. Yes, this trend has been partially reversed under the administration of the Justice and Development Party, or AKP. The fact remains however that Turkey would still not be the perfect site to address the Islamic world. Iraq, Afghanistan, the Middle East peace process together with reconciliation with Iran and Syria, all these make Turkey an indispensable ally for Obama.

Turkish - Armenian reconciliation behind Obama’s visit

But let’s not exaggerate Turkey’s role. As journalists we should stop asking the U.S. officials if Turkey can play a role of mediator. The United States no longer needs a mediator. It will hold direct talks with Syria and Iran. What Turkey can do, as it has done during previous administrations, is to offer its insight, be helpful to break the mutual prejudices. Metaphorically, as the sides will have difficulty in speaking the same language at the beginning, Turkey could help translate, which will facilitate mutual understanding.

The fact that Turkey is in the right position to help the new administration in its foreign policy priorities is not by itself enough to explain Obama’s early visit. The prospect for Turkish-Armenian reconciliation must have also played a role in this decision. We know that there has been considerable progress in the negotiations between Ankara and Yerevan to normalize relations. Although both capitals have been very careful not to have any leak to the press as to the level of progress of the talks, there are signs that the two sides are very close to a final agreement.

However, prior to the declaration of Clinton’s visit, Ankara was evaluating the right timing. Ankara was questioning the merits of reaching an agreement before April 24. "What happens if we reach an agreement and announce it prior to April 24, and despite that, U.S. Congress passes a resolution recognizing Armenian claims of genocide or Obama makes a statement on that direction as he pledged during his electoral campaign. It will look like a major diplomatic defeat," a senior Turkish official familiar with the talks with Armenians had told me. So, it would not come to me as a surprise if the Turkish side had started to drag its feet to gain time. It only looks logical for Obama to come to Turkey to encourage a reconciliation, which in turn will facilitate backing down from his pledge. After all, it became quite evident that Washington is unwilling to hamper its relations with Ankara because of genocide claims. All the delegations that visited Ankara after Obama’s inauguration, from Robert Wexler to Richard Durbin, have told the Turkish side that the likelihood of recognition either by the Congress or the administration is very dim.