Tensions seen to escalate in Middle East as Israel vows more attacks

At least five Palestinians were killed in IAF attacks in Gaza late Saturday night and Sunday morning, as the death toll in the Gaza rose to over 270. Israel has drawn fierce reaction from the international community.

The incident heightened fears of a wider war that could shake the sensitive balance in the region, while it is seen that it would definitely harm the fragile peace processes.

In a first response to the operation, Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan said Saturday that he decided not to call his counterpart Ehud Olmert to discuss the mediation process between Israel and Syria.

A military operation had been forecast and demanded by Israeli officials for weeks, ever since a rocky ceasefire between Israel and Hamas fully collapsed a week ago, leading again to rocket attacks in large numbers against Israel and isolated Israeli operations here.

Still, there was a shocking quality to Saturday’s attacks, which began in broad daylight as police cadets were graduating, women were shopping at outdoor market, and children were emerging from school.

Israeli military officials said the air strikes, which went on into the night, were the start of what could be days or even months of an effort to force Hamas to end its rocket barrages into southern Israel. The operation could include ground forces, a senior Israeli security official said, the media reports suggest.

In Damascus, Syria, Hamas’s supreme leader, Khaled Meshal, said in an interview with Al Jazeera television that he was calling for a new Palestinian intifada against Israel, including the resumption of suicide attacks within Israel for the first time since 2005. Hamas, he said, had accepted “all the peaceful options, but without results”.

POSSIBLE SCENARIOS

There are possible scenarios about which point this tension could go and the outcomes of the Israeli operations.

The most feared scenario is that the operation could turn into an all-out invasion of Gaza to crack down Hamas. The best-equipped army in the Middle East, with total control of the air, could overwhelm Hamas guerrillas and their allies, who may number around 35,000.

Although Israel has the strongest army in the region, Hamas, once known for its suicide attacks inside Israeli cities, is no longer a small-time group, but a large guerrilla army that has well-trained forces deployed throughout the entire Gaza Strip. It also had learned a lot from Hezbollah and is supported by Islamic Jihad, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine and the Popular Resistance Committees.

Israeli politicians also expressed concern that the general election set for Feb. 10 could be postponed if the operations in the Gaza Strip require people to remain in bomb shelters for an extended period.

This scenario is likely to impact on the lives of many, including civilians from both sides. Hamas may unleash longer-range Grad rockets on bigger cities like Ashkelon and Beersheva. Heavy fighting would cause casualties among Gaza's 1.5 million civilians, half of whom are children.

Retaking Gaza would leave the problem of whether Israel would resume the occupation it ended in 2005 after 38 years. It has vowed not to. But withdrawing after an invasion might see more hostilities from even more embittered Gazans.

Israeli officials may also decide to limit the operation. Some Israeli officials speak of a swift move into parts of the 45 km (30-mile) long strip of coast, notably into the relatively thinly populated "Philadelphi Corridor" in the south that would cut Hamas off from supply tunnels from Egypt and into northern areas from where rockets are launched against Israel.

Such a move, officials say, could be accompanied by air strikes and commando operations to kill the Hamas leadership and let Mahmoud Abbas' Fatah loyalists take control of the enclave.

Even a limited operation risks a large number of casualties on both sides. It is unclear how hard it may be to dislodge Hamas even without senior leaders, and the rocket fire might continue.

The optimistic scenario among all is the implementation of sanctions. The previous term showed how quickly and easily Israel can seal off Gaza.

By pushing Gazans to make a connection between hardship and Hamas rule at a time when aid money is flowing into the Fatah-run West Bank, Israel, its Western allies -- and Abbas -- hope Palestinians in Gaza will turn against the Islamists.

Sanctions so far have had little obvious effect on Hamas and are likely to draw international condemnation as well as accusations. Such move would also hurt the Israeli business.