Armenians eye moves with deep skepticism
Güncelleme Tarihi:
by Cansu Çamlıbel
Oluşturulma Tarihi: Nisan 20, 2009 00:00
YEREVAN - High expectations in Yerevan of sealing the deal with Turkey to establish diplomatic ties and reopen the border have yielded to concerns that bilateral relations have been besieged once again by the Nagorno-Karabakh issue.
The Armenian side no longer talks about the possibility of rapid progress before April 24, the day that commemorates the mass-killing of Armenians in 1915, but maintains cautious optimism about opening the border within 2009. Meanwhile, the U.S. administration dispatched Assistant Secretary of State Matt Bryza to the region.
Bryza arrives in Ankara today after a round of talks in Baku and Yerevan in search of a breakthrough on the Nagorno-Karabakh issue.
While Ankara now points to the meeting of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Russian President Dimitry Medvedev on May 6 as a new critical juncture, it was learned that Bryza hoped for a breakthrough on the Karabakh issue in June. Former Armenian Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian, who witnessed a failure of talks with then-Foreign Minister Abdullah Gül, argued that what was happening today was a repetition of history. Speaking exclusively to Hurriyet Daily News & Economic Review on Saturday, Oskanian recalled his own experience with the Justice and Development Party, or AKP, government.
"I remember my first meeting with Gül. The AKP had just come to power then and he told me they wanted to normalize relations and added that Turkey did not benefit from linking the Turkey-Armenia problem to third countries and Nagorno-Karabakh. And I told him that this was music to my ears because we have been advocating for this for so long," he said. "But then they realized that the Azeri pressure cannot be dismissed or ignored. Karabakh again became part of our discussions and after a while it became clear that the Karabakh issue was the main obstacle between the two countries."
Ankara`s efforts for an international push toward rapid progress on Karabakh, meanwhile, have other implications for the U.S. in terms of the power struggle in the Caucasus. Foreign Minister Ali Babacan’s meeting with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov in Yerevan last week, raised eyebrows in Washington, adding to the existing discontent over Russian-Azerbaijani negotiations over gas. Third-country diplomats, meanwhile, are worried that Armenia’s cautious optimism might be lost, leading to a walk-out from the negotiation table if Turkey squanders too much time with the Karabakh problem. Assertive public statements similar to Erdoğan`s on Karabakh to please Azerbaijan need to be particularly avoided in these days, according to diplomatic observers who follow the process closely.
"Nagorno-Karabakh may play some role over Turkish-Armenian relations. But I think the problem is much deeper than this. Turkey is not ready now," said Hovhannes Igityan, one of the leading names of the National Armenia Party, led by the country’s first president, Levon Ter-Petrossian. "When Turkey is ready to establish relations, it would not wait for a declaration from Azerbaijan," he said.
Tevan Poghosyan, executive director of the International Center for Human Development, joins veteran politician Igityan in disregarding the Karabakh question as the threshold of a Turkish-Armenian rapprochement. "I believe that Nagorno-Karabakh is just a fake, artificial reason not to take a real step. Internal problems in Turkey do not allow Turkey’s decision-makers to take the big step," he told to the Daily News.
While skepticism of Turkey’s sincerity still exists as an important element of public opinion in Armenia, businessmen stand out among the primary actors ready to reverse suspicion into interaction. Arsen Ghazaryan, president of Union of Manufacturers and Businessmen of Armenia (equivalent of TUSIAD) noted that because of the border closure, the two nations that have lived together for 600 years are losing the chance to culturally and economically reintegrate.
Bryza arrives in Ankara today after a round of talks in Baku and Yerevan in search of a breakthrough on the Nagorno-Karabakh issue.
While Ankara now points to the meeting of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Russian President Dimitry Medvedev on May 6 as a new critical juncture, it was learned that Bryza hoped for a breakthrough on the Karabakh issue in June. Former Armenian Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian, who witnessed a failure of talks with then-Foreign Minister Abdullah Gül, argued that what was happening today was a repetition of history. Speaking exclusively to Hurriyet Daily News & Economic Review on Saturday, Oskanian recalled his own experience with the Justice and Development Party, or AKP, government.
"I remember my first meeting with Gül. The AKP had just come to power then and he told me they wanted to normalize relations and added that Turkey did not benefit from linking the Turkey-Armenia problem to third countries and Nagorno-Karabakh. And I told him that this was music to my ears because we have been advocating for this for so long," he said. "But then they realized that the Azeri pressure cannot be dismissed or ignored. Karabakh again became part of our discussions and after a while it became clear that the Karabakh issue was the main obstacle between the two countries."
Ankara`s efforts for an international push toward rapid progress on Karabakh, meanwhile, have other implications for the U.S. in terms of the power struggle in the Caucasus. Foreign Minister Ali Babacan’s meeting with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov in Yerevan last week, raised eyebrows in Washington, adding to the existing discontent over Russian-Azerbaijani negotiations over gas. Third-country diplomats, meanwhile, are worried that Armenia’s cautious optimism might be lost, leading to a walk-out from the negotiation table if Turkey squanders too much time with the Karabakh problem. Assertive public statements similar to Erdoğan`s on Karabakh to please Azerbaijan need to be particularly avoided in these days, according to diplomatic observers who follow the process closely.
"Nagorno-Karabakh may play some role over Turkish-Armenian relations. But I think the problem is much deeper than this. Turkey is not ready now," said Hovhannes Igityan, one of the leading names of the National Armenia Party, led by the country’s first president, Levon Ter-Petrossian. "When Turkey is ready to establish relations, it would not wait for a declaration from Azerbaijan," he said.
Tevan Poghosyan, executive director of the International Center for Human Development, joins veteran politician Igityan in disregarding the Karabakh question as the threshold of a Turkish-Armenian rapprochement. "I believe that Nagorno-Karabakh is just a fake, artificial reason not to take a real step. Internal problems in Turkey do not allow Turkey’s decision-makers to take the big step," he told to the Daily News.
While skepticism of Turkey’s sincerity still exists as an important element of public opinion in Armenia, businessmen stand out among the primary actors ready to reverse suspicion into interaction. Arsen Ghazaryan, president of Union of Manufacturers and Businessmen of Armenia (equivalent of TUSIAD) noted that because of the border closure, the two nations that have lived together for 600 years are losing the chance to culturally and economically reintegrate.