Turkey-Obama ties hurt by four obstacles

Despite the high expectations voiced about the new leaders of the United States, Obama and Biden’s foreign policy could present additional problems to Turkish diplomacy, according to an analysis undertaken by Turkish diplomats.

"There are four major issues where we could face serious disagreement with the new administration; Cyprus, Iraq, Afghanistan and the so-called Armenian genocide claims," a senior Turkish foreign ministry official told the Hürriyet Daily News.

Cyprus problem
It is certain the new administration will continue to back ongoing talks between Turkish and Greek Cypriots to reach a comprehensive settlement. Biden’s strong ties with the Greek lobby in Washington is seen as a matter of concern. Some Turkish experts believe that as the platform for the solution has already shifted from the United Nations to the European Union, Washington’s impact on the process will be limited.

However, Turkish officials point out it was only recently that Turkey’s views on Cyprus have gained legitimacy and weight in Washington, during the Bush era. "Therefore, we have to re-start efforts to arrive at the same level with the newcomers," officials said.

More troops to Afghanistan
NATO countries are expecting pressure from the new administration to send more troops to Afghanistan due to General David Petraeus being promoted to top commander of the U.S. forces in Afghanistan. "The lesson General Petraeus took from Iraq is the success of military surges. The new administration will surely knock on our door to send additional troops," a senior EU diplomat told the Daily News.

Erdoğan questioned Obama’s plan to gradually relocate American troops stationed in Iraq to Afghanistan, saying "Is this going to be a solution or a grave disaster?"

Criticizing the Bush administration’s Iraq policy, which caused massive damage to Iraqi civilization in only six years, Erdoğan recalled the process had begun with the slogan "global peace" in the early 2000s.

"If we defend global peace, we, the world leaders, should work for it in solidarity. The cost (of failure) is the death of millions and the spending of trillions of dollars," he said.

In Iraq, Turkey’s primary concern is a possible wave of instability if there is a quick withdrawal of American troops. The making of a Status of Forces Agreement, or SOFA, between Iraq and the United States is cautiously watched by Turkey.

Baghdad has already announced it will consult its neighbors on the contents of the agreement, expected to include a clause about Iraq’s commitment to the prevention of terrorist attacks on neighboring countries from its territories.

Direct dialogue with northern Iraqi leaders
With regard to establishing direct dialogue with northern Iraqi leaders, the Obama administration will take the same line as the current one.

As for cooperation against the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, diplomats do not foresee a change in U.S. policy. But in the mid-term, the Obama administration could seek a more civilian approach from Turkey to end the terror problem inside the country. In this context, the possible dissolution of the pro-Kurdish Democratic Society Party, or DTP, would attract harsh criticism from Washington.

In relation to the Armenian genocide, Turkish diplomats think the recent rapprochement between Ankara and Yerevan may not be enough to stop the Armenian diaspora’s efforts in the United States to have the 1915 incident officially recognized as genocide.

Both Obama and Biden promised their voters of Armenian origin to work for such a recognition. "There could be attempts for recognition early next year," the official said, adding, "But we have already started to work against this possibility. In our early contact with Obama and Biden’s advisers, we were clear about the sensitivity of the issue."