What if I tell you

But I couldn’t make the Turkish Cypriot business tycoon Asil Nadir believe this in the late 1980s and early 1990s. In a few conversations, I told him that I am an economy illiterate but he thought that I was pulling his string. He even told that I am quite good in the subject of economy. I know myself. It is impossible for him to make me believe in this. When I told him that my approach has nothing to do with the economy, but psychology, "What you call economy is 80 percent psychology," he defended. It was important for me to hear such an assessment from a successful businessman. I think relying on that "economy is 80 percent psychology," I rarely touched upon the economy here in this column, but of course not without forgetting the fact that, in fact, I am an economy illiterate. The reason was that I sensed an incredible reluctance in Turkey toward the global financial crisis. The crisis did not originate in Turkey, but acting like we will never be affected by that and ignoring the situation is not right, so I wrote. The crisis stemming from the only "super power" state in the unipolar international system had to have global impact. And it did happen. As its effects were felt in Turkey, we began to discuss the issue.

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan claimed, "It will bypass us." Nowadays, as we experience the local election campaigns, which have slowly turned into a referendum for the government, discussing the crisis is an issue only if it is needed as part of the campaign trails. A potential standby agreement with the International Monetary Fund, or IMF, is included. Opponents are accusing the government of delaying the IMF agreement. But the pro-government approves the line of Erdoğan against the IMF. In the mean time, whether the crisis will bypass Turkey or it will ruin us is a topic of political polemics. I, as an economy illiterate, am not interested in this side of the matter. I am looking into general political and economic trends, data and theses that I think reasonable.

The unemployment figure of December 2008 was announced the other day as 3,274,000, a total of 838,000 more people being unemployed. The number has increased from 10.6 percent last year to 13.6 percent this year. The unemployment is quite critical especially among young people. It is up from 20.6 percent to 25.7 percent. The relation between the population of young in a country and the unemployment rate gives the clues about social ups and downs, future of the county and therefore how political structure will be shaped up. So it is quite important. For instance, 66 percent of the Iranian population is 30 years old, 50 percent is under 20 and the unemployment rate in Iran stands at 15 percent.

What does it mean? It means new jobs for 800,000 young people every year. In a decade it means new jobs for 10 million youngsters. Ten million is the total population of Greece; it is the total population of Israelis and Palestinians. You go figure the rest and make an evaluation about the trend in Turkey. Starting from this, you can write disaster scenarios for Turkey. But what will we say to the following comment by Süleyman Yaşar, the most striking economy commentator of recent times.

"In the bulletin published by the Treasury Directorate last week, international capital flow to Turkey has increased to $872 million in January 2009, a $22 million increase since last year. Despite the global financial crisis, the increase in direct foreign investment in Turkey indicates the trust that the world has for Turkey."

Yaşar also pointed out the G-20 financial ministers and central bank governors meeting held over the weekend in London. He stressed the decisions taken in the meeting strengthened Turkey’s hand and put an end to the disagreement between the International Monetary Fund, or IMF, and Turkey.The G-20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting ended with decisions to have recovery plans for economic growth and employment. Turkey supports them. Therefore, as the IMF discussed the magnitude of the prevention package and the budgetary figures, it will have to consider Turkey’s demands for economic growth.

So, can we reach the conclusion that the Erdoğan government in talks with the IMF has won the upper hand despite all criticism? I don’t know because I am an economy illiterate.

What I know is this: U.S. President Barack Obama will be in London on April 2 as part of his first overseas expedition and will participate in the G-20 summit. Turkey will be at the same meeting. The summit will in a way provide political approval to the decisions taken by finance ministers last weekend. The last stop of Obama’s trip will be Turkey.

Meaning? The meaning is if the U.S.-led international system collapses, Turkey will collapse too. Otherwise, Turkey takes the lead in the countries that will never ever be let bankrupt. This is why Obama’s first visit being to Turkey is important. In the meantime, let me not forget that "the U.S. will beat the crisis in 2010," announced the U.S. Federal Reserve, or FED, governor Ben Bernanke the other day.

As it is known, 2010 is at the same time as the deadline for U.S. withdrawal from Iraq. In a way, security of Iraq, of the Iraqi Kurdistan actually, will be assigned to Turkey in 2010 É

But let’s go back to economy and continue with Bernanke’s assessment on the current crisis. He said, "Éit is impossible to understand this crisis without reference to the global imbalances in trade and capital flows that began in the latter half of the 1990s... We collectively did not do enough to reduce those imbalancesÉ"

And therefore the crisis loomed.

David Ignatius completes the rest in his article published in the Washington Post:

"The basic imbalance was that the United States consumed far more than it produced. America financed this excess consumption by borrowing money from China and the other rising nations of Asia whose export-led economies were generating huge savings. Both sides became addicted to the flows of trade and capital: America loved gorging on cheap foreign imports; the foreigners loved the rapid growth that came from shoveling goods into the insatiable U.S. market."

The G-20 summit convenes to find a remedy to the situation. Washington seeks for a coordinated global attitude in order not to repeat the imbalances of the past as it was mentioned above. If the Europeans and China agree, it will be easy to rid of this crisis. By looking at the fact that the first leg of Obama’s first overseas expedition is the G-20 Summit to be held in London and the last leg is the Ankara-Istanbul line in Turkey. So I can say the following:

Turkey, as the only "international actor" in Obama’s London-Istanbul line, it is being regarded as one of the "doctors" of the crisis, rather than its victims. In this period, no negative economic data should ruin the confidence felt for Turkey about the future.