Dangerous designs

As was demonstrated in the March local elections when the political debate in the country concentrated on some concrete issues such as the economy, cost of living, unemployment, collapsing companies, the ruling party’s popularity start to recede and consequently the AKP vote declined for the first time since it came to power with an electoral landslide in 2003 and dipped to 38 percent.

In that vote, not only the CHP scored a marginal improvement in its electoral support, but there was improvement in the electoral support for the Nationalist Movement Party, or MHP, as well. The March local polls result, thus, helped the acceleration of the search in center-right spectrum of Turkish politics for an "alternative" to the AKP. Hüsamettin Cindoruk’s return to active politics and becoming leader of the Democrat Party, or DP, renewed efforts of achieving a merger of the DP and the Motherland Party, or ANAP, and former deputy premier Abdüllatif Şener establishing his long-expected Turkey Party, or TP, could as well be considered byproducts of that new search.

In the left flank of the political spectrum, on the other hand, the success of some out of line candidates (even though some of them were not successful enough to get elected to mayoral posts but considerably increased the CHP vote in their localities) strengthened the calls and search for "change" in the CHP and led to a leadership change in the Democratic Left Party, or the DSP.

But when there was a heated and polarized debate in the country over religion, secularism and the perceived threat to secular and modern lifestyle, irrespective of the economic performance of the government the electoral support for the AKP tended to radically improve, as was seen with the 47 percent electoral support for the AKP in the 2007 parliamentary elections after a campaign dominated by AKP’s demand to send an "Islamist president" to the Çankaya presidential palace and the secularist CHP scaring the nation that the modern, secular republic was at risk.



Can AKP risk going to referendum?

In the aftermath of the 2007 success of the AKP was of course there was the foiled attempt to make amendments in the Constitution and allow Islamist headscarf enter universities and consequently the closure case against the ruling party from which it narrowly escaped closure but was sentenced to a fine with a 10 to one vote by the high court of being a focus of anti-secular activities.

Now, apparently the architects of the previous constitutional amendment crisis are back at work and advising the prime minister that while it might be easier and more comfortable to make amendments in the constitution through establishing a consensus with the opposition parties, the AKP was strong enough to risk going to referendum and thus undertake the reforms in the national charter on its own. Naturally, introducing the so-called "Venice criteria" in closure of parties, that is prohibiting party closures unless direct involvement of parties in violence or changing the composition, increasing the number of judges as well as the election procedures of the constitutional court are of great importance for AKP’s own fight for survival.

If debate in the country focuses once again on religion and secularism and if the country makes a return to that heated polarized atmosphere again, not only the meltdown in AKP might be stopped but the party may go to a possible early election in 2011 with a potential to win over 40 percent electoral support once again.

"If needed the nation will open any political bottleneck through a referendum because these amendments are needed for our EU bid" remarks coming from the AKP flank lately indicate the existence and spread of that dangerous mentality in the AKP. Will that mentality bring back the AKP with an over 40 percent electoral support or lead to some very serious consequences?