The only reality of the Caucasus: peace

"Turkey-Armenia talks and international efforts to solve Nagorno-Karabakh talks are two different tracks. They are parallel and trying to create links between these two tracks would not be productive." Fassier’s warning came just a week after Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan linked these two issues to each other, making explicit that Turkey’s condition to open the border with Armenia was the withdrawal of Armenian troops from the regions surrounding the Nagorno-Karabakh.

In fact, the United States and the European Union countries also shared Fassier’s warnings. There is a growing concern among them that the reconciliation process between Turkey and Armenia will be shelved and the Road Map announced on April 22, will totally be forgotten, if Azerbaijan and Armenia cannot reach an agreement soon.

But the mood in Ankara is somehow different to this. "There are 2-3 different processes in the region. What we seek is to reach a comprehensive peace agreement covering entire region," a high-level foreign ministry official has said right after Fassier’s meetings here.

"There are realities of this region. Each issue is linked to each other, this way or another. Minsk Group should definitely move forward towards an agreement on Nagorno-Karabakh. Otherwise, the region will not be very much peaceful," official added. "For the progress on the Road Map, we should observe the same in Nagorno-Karabakh talks."

From Ankara’s point of view, the first reality highlighted is that Turkey cannot give up of its strategic relations with Azerbaijan. The alliance of these two countries in the region constitutes an important bond to reduce Russia’s influence on the region. That brings about the second reality for Turkey. To keep Azerbaijan on the Western front and diminish Russian interferences to Baku. Not only for political reasons but also securing non-Russian options for transiting Caspian gas and oil to European markets. The third reality is that it will take at least five years to solve the Nagorno-Karabakh problem. Though the Minsk Group is pressing Armenia and Azerbaijan to deal on an interim agreement, the withdrawal of the occupied regions, the return of Azeri people to their original regions and the reaching a compromise on the final status will take years. Another reality for Ankara is that "the efforts for the recognition of the Armenian genocide by the third countries" will continue to be a huge problem for Turkey.

Question mark on minds

All such rhetoric of Ankara puts a question mark in the minds here on Turkish government’s sincerity for reconciliation. If not this, it gives the impression that Turkish government ignores some other realities of the region.

There is no alternative to the peace, a reality that was proven last summer during unexpected the Russia-Georgia war. This war has proven the vulnerability of all Caucasus countries, including Turkey.

As for Armenia, its 60 percent of imports and exports were cut as its only link to world markets, Yerevan-Tbilisi highway and railway, were no longer available due to the war. Its connection to the world was depending on the existence of a bridge in Georgian territories. Furthermore, the status quo cost too much for Armenia, as Azerbaijan and Turkey have isolated it for years. That’s why Russia agreed to lend Armenia $500 million to help Yerevan withstand the economic crisis.

As for Azerbaijan, they realized that the safe flows of oil via Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan and of natural gas via Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum pipelines were not guaranteed forever. An explosion in the territory of Georgia or British Petroleum’s decision to withdraw its pipeline experts from Georgia due to the crisis would affect severely the utilization of the pipeline.

Azerbaijan would be obliged to accept to use Russian pipeline network to carry its oil to Novorosisk or to make Swap agreements with Iran, something Turkey would not be happy to see. Another reality for Azerbaijan is thay can no longer consider the use of military force for the solution of its dispute with Armenia after witnessing what has happened in Georgia.

And for Turkey, the halt of the gas and oil would dramatically change the nature of realities of the region. Preserving the status quo and postponing peace agreements will only work for the advantage of Russia, a reality one cannot ignore. Another reality is that the EU’s growing interest to the Caucasus and beyond. Through France’s Fassier, the EU is gearing up in the region for both regional political stability and of course securing energy supplies. Turkish deviation from this line will obviously not be in advantage of the EU-candidate Turkey. Considering the realities listed above, it’s no doubt that Turkey should revise its regional policy, in a way to balance its relations with Azerbaijan and reconciliation process with Armenia and to advise so to its ally Azerbaijan as well.