The incoming period in Turkey depends on AKP's attitude

The Constitutional Court's ruling signal that it took the conjunctural and strategic importance of the case into consideration in its decision-taking process.

Giving a "serious warning" to the party means the court would continue to monitor it.

 

It can be said that this ruling cannot be considered as a victory or defeat for anybody. However the most important thing would be what kind of steps the ruling AKP would take after the decision.

 

There is a crucial period for the AKP to use this process as an opportunity to eliminate the radical names in the party. AKP had moved to a more moderate and calm position from its aggressive reactions after the closure case was filed. And this change can be seen as a positive sign.

 

POSSIBLE SCENARIOS FOR THE FUTURE

-ELECTIONS: In one scenario, the AKP could call early general elections or decide to combine possible early elections with local elections, scheduled for March 2009, to improve its image and re-gain the confidence of the public.

 

-REVISIONS: Prime Minsiter Tayyip Erdogan could call for a reshuffle of the cabinet or party administrative bodies. Sources close to Erdogan say he considers a reshuffle.

 

-COMPROMISE: The AKP could develop formulas or rhetoric to seek compromise in order to reduce the tension.

 

-THE CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS: The AKP could take steps to strike a deal with opposition parties for a constitutional amendments package which would toughen conditions for party closure.

 

 

 

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