The Gaza bill is coming

* In Israel the Hawks will be effective:

Elections on Tuesday were not surprising. As expected, those who used Gaza for internal politics won. Emerging coalitions will, no matter from which angle you look at it, consist of leaders who will favor less peace and more harshness. As CNN’s commentator Yalım Eralp puts it, it wasn’t peace that came out of the elections. On top of that, the vote distribution has not eliminated uncertainty but instead greatly increased the probability of another early election. 

* But Israel won’t be able to act as it pleases:

Soli Özel in his last article in the daily Sabah made a very correct evaluation in this matter. Israel is losing its "acting as it pleases" possibility that started when the Iranian shah was overthrown in 1979 and reached its peak with events on Sept. 11, 2001. You’ll remember when in Iran the Islamic revolution was successful, Israel’s security was entirely turned over to Washington. And the Sept. 11 event increased the dimensions of the strategic alliance between Israel and the United States. Muslim and fundamental pious terrorists hit the United States. Israel was struggling with the same terrorists. So they were sharing a common fate. Israel could now do whatever it wanted and took support by the United States for granted. Now the end of this period has come. From now on Israel cannot act how it pleases. It will not be able to do whatever it wants by disregarding international public opinion. 

* There won’t be peace without Hamas:

No matter how much anybody objects, Hamas has profited from the last event. Hamas was characterized as a simple terror organization but is now seen as the victim of this process. What’s further is that it has been understood there won’t be any peace without Hamas. And Hamas must have understood that it needs to take responsibility and act accordingly, and must have seen that it won’t get anywhere with disagreement with Fatah and the present split. 

* Turkey expanded its role:

Erdoğan’s aggression during Davos should be put aside. The incident was effective and resulted in an overall grade given for the prime minister’s general attitude. On the other hand, Turkey’s role in the region has expanded. Turkey has become an actor in the region as never before. It started to be taken seriously. Its opinion is asked. From now on its role of negotiator and facilitator will depend on some conditions that need to be fulfilled: like its power to influence HamasÉ a green light from WashingtonÉ no damage to relations with IsraelÉ accelerate negotiations with the European Union need to be fulfilled.

In summary, the Middle East will never be the same again.

I’m not as hopeless as Cemal

Hasan Cemal in his article in the daily Milliyet yesterday has touched on a very important issue. If I were to summarize, starting from Sept. 6 to 7 he outlines events since Susurluk including unsolved murder that have been covered up by the state and says that he does not believe these will ever be solved someday. In general this belief is shared by the public. It is believed that state leaders commit murder in the name of "protecting the state" and cause a lot of chaos but can never be called to account for it. It was true until recently. But the situation has started to change. Now, the perception has started to increase that someday someone will knock on doors and might call somebody to account.

We criticize the manner in which the Ergenekon case is conducted, the lack of proof against detainees and other boorish behavior but when we get to the bottom of it we see a series of abnormal organizations existing. Some individuals in this society have taken on the job in the name of the state and go about murder and create chaos. I am not as daunted as Hasan Cemal in this regard. Even if, like Susurluk, the Ergenekon case does not end with an expected resultÉ even if many years pass, someone will come out in the end and call somebody to account. Even if we are not the ones to do this, the ghosts of those who lost their lives will haunt us. This was the case in Argentina, in ChileÉ in FranceÉ and in GermanyÉ

There is no way out.