Mr Prime Minister, liberals and terror in Mumbai

Being targeted by a "Sept. 11-like" attack made eyes turn to India, or the subcontinent. When newly elected president of the United States, Barrack Obama, announced that his priority will be Islamic fundamentalist terror centers located along the Afghanistan-Pakistan axis. The subcontinent was giving the signal that it could leave the Middle East behind in terror-related incidents.

this reason, the place and timing of the terror in India and the "Pakistani finger prints" on it indicate that the subcontinent will be the center of world politics in the upcoming period.

In the meantime, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, after an eight year interval, paid a visit to India just before the terror attacks. He became the second prime minister to visit India.

But the Turkish media did not pay attention to any "geopolitical" meanings and "strategic horizons" of Erdoğan’s trip. Turkey rather focused on his statements about a possible withdrawal from the party leadership if the ruling Justice and Development Party, or AKP, becomes the second runner-up in the March 2009 elections.

Or we were kept busy with scenes from Erdoğan’s Taj Mahal trip or images of construction works at the Turkish Embassy in New Delhi. But if the real purpose of this was taken up together with the terror attacks in Mumbai, one can see the clues about Turkey’s political near future.

This "main side" of Erdoğan’s expedition signals the establishment of an "energy bridge" among Turkey, Israel and India. And such a connection definitely carries a political meaning.

In New Delhi, Erdoğan said during a speech at the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry, or FICCI, that the oil transfer from Russia to India takes about 39 days, but will be reduced to 16 days if the crude is carried through Turkey. The positive effect of this on freight price cannot be denied by any government, he added.

Before Erdoğan’s address at the FICCI, Turkish Energy Minister Hilmi Güler, accompanying Erdoğan, gave a briefing about the energy transfer lines to be set between Israel and Turkey. The minister mentioned a plan to carry not only oil, but also natural gas, water, electric and data through fiber optic cables on these very same lines.

According to Güler, to transfer oil of the Caspian crude and Central Asian oil through the Samsun-Ceyhan pipeline will be possible in the future. The oil will be carried to big energy consumers in Asia, such as India, China, Japan and Malaysia, via Israel, he added. This assertive "strategic project" worth $6 billion will be led by a consortium to be formed with the partnership of Turkey, India and Israel.

Therefore, Erdoğan’s Indian expedition needs to be evaluated in the frame of these "strategic horizons." A large-scale and possibly Pakistani-origin terror incident in Mumbai likely brought a quite functional role to Mr. Prime Minister.

Edoğan had met his Pakistani counterpart in Ankara just a couple of days before his trip to India. He naturally got involved in "telephone diplomacy" upon the Mumbai terror attacks, in order to ease the tension between India and Pakistan.

If the international community evaluates Erdoğan’s functionality intelligently enough, he may have a chance to compensate an "erosion of prestige" spreading from inside to the world.

The impact of the articles published last week in the New York Times and the Economist that relations between Prime Minister Erdoğan and liberals are on the rocks, which may damage his international prestige severely, may be canceled out at least in the western administrative circles, if Erdoğan takes a soothing role approved by Israel in the India-Pakistan tension, as the prime conflict of the world.

The India-Pakistan tension is traveling on the classical "Clash of Civilizations" fault line due to the Islamist terror targeted Mumbai. Let us not forget that Erdoğan is a political figure perceived with his Islamic identity and he is the co-chair of the United Nation’s "Alliance of Civilizations" together with the Spanish Prime Minister José Louis Rodriguez Zapatero.

The intensity and dimensions of the India-Pakistan tension may crash Erdoğan if the "game" is not played accurately or not cleverly. But, if it is played subtly and masterfully Mr. Prime Minister’s "international image" may be polished more, even if there is no solution found.

In such a case, the "Erdoğan-Liberals conflict" may turn into a very local issue. Plus, it could give Erdoğan a "functional upper-hand."

It is known that he lands on his feet most of the time. The Mumbai attacks will contingently attest to this condition...