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    Morgan Stanley: Turkish media not a paper tiger

    Hürriyet Haber
    19.03.2005 - 09:52 | Son Güncelleme:

    International investment bank Morgan Stanley said there was a growing foreign interest in Turkish media industry which has a brilliant future with respect to advertisement revenues.

    Within the scope of the law adopted in the Turkish Parliament facilitating sale of assets of The Turkish Savings and Deposit Insurance Fund (TMSF) and the right of foreigners to own TV channels in Turkey, Morgan Stanley prepared a general outlook regarding Turkish media industry and said ''Turkish media is not a paper tiger''.

    According to the research, there will be more foreign capital inflow to Turkish media during Turkey's (EU) process.

    The research said, ''Turkish media has one of the lowest advertising/GDP ratios in the world. It said, ''driven by EU convergence and economic strengthening, Turkey's 0.4 percent ad/GDP ratio should increase rapidly in the next ten years; we forecast it to reach 0.8 percent by 2015.''

    The research also said, ''Dogan Yayin Holdings (DYH) is the leaderin Turkish media with 40 percent advertising revenue share. Hurriyet is the leading newspaper in Turkey, with 40 percent newspaper ad share. Hurriyet already enjoys a 28 percent EBITDA margin (2004e). Our base-case scenario shows that margins could increase to 33 percent by 2015 given the operating leverage from advertising revenue.''

    ''We have a YTL 5.28 fair value for DYH shares from weighting the outcome of our DCF valuation by 75 percent and our SOTP valuation by 25 percent,'' the research indicates.

    The research noted that, ''for Hurriyet, our share price target is YTL 4.06. We use a similar process for Hurriyet, weighting our DCF outcome by 75 percent and the value we reach via multiples analysis by 25 percent.
    ''
    ''For both companies, we use a 7.5 percent risk free rate and a 4 percent equity risk premium in our DCF,'' the research noted.

    The research also read ''televisions in Turkey have 54 percent share in advertisement expenses made for media while the share of printed press is a mere 31.7 percent''.

    According to the Morgan Stanley research, even implementation of long term dwelling finance (Mortgage) system itself will be an element which may increase advertisement income of the Turkish media.

    It has been estimated that 15 million US dollars advertisement expense will be made within this year (even in the second half of 2005) which the Turkish media may make use of.  

     

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