Recalling that there are 15 candidates for the prize, the Il Giorno article continues: "The most favored candidate is Orhan Pamuk, who is has had a court case opened up against him for saying that the Armenian genocide occured in Turkey. The government in Ankara, working in coalition with the US, has put pressure on the Nobel Academy to prevent the prize from going to Pamuk, and for this reason, jury members are unable to come to a conclusion. It could be to Turkey's advantage, especially following October 3, for Pamuk, whose star has begun to shine of late, to win this prize. But Pamuk's admission of an Armenian genocide could create problems and a road of no return for Turkey as an EU candidate country."
The Il Giorno went on to speculate that if Pamuk did not receive the prize, the next most likely to win would be Polish author Ryszard Kapuscinki.