US envoy hopes for Nagorno-Karabakh deal on principles mid-July

U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Matthew Bryza said he and his fellow mediators from France and Russia were "shooting for" a full framework agreement by the end of 2009. �

But Bryza conceded the risk of a last-minute breakdown of the kind that derailed earlier efforts to broker agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

“I don't have any reason necessarily to believe that getting as far as we have here -- which is similar to how far the mediators and the parties got both at Key West and before -- that we're going to get further than they did," he told Reuters by phone from Washington at the weekend.

“I do know that we've gotten very far now. What gives me some hope that we will keep moving is logic,” he added.

The conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia began in 1988 on Armenian territorial claims over Azerbaijan. Since 1992, Armenian Armed Forces have occupied 20 percent of Azerbaijan including the Nagorno-Karabakh region and its seven surrounding districts -- a frozen conflict legacy of the Soviet Union.

The OSCE Minsk Group, set up in 1992 and co-chaired by the United States, Russia, and France, is engaged in efforts to resolve the conflict peacefully.

Armed clashes still occur regularly along the lines separating Azeri and Armenian troops, although major hostilities ended.

Bryza said the Minsk Group mediators hoped to bring together Armenian President Serge Sargsyan and Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan in mid-July, the latest in a string of encounters fuelling speculation of a breakthrough.

Vote on final status

"We hope that if they meet in the middle of July, they will have agreed conceptually on all the elements of these basic principles," he said. The parties would then go line-by-line through the three-and-a-half pages of text to agree the details.

“Once that happens, which we the co-chairs are shooting for by the end of the year, then we could say, it would be true, that a framework agreement has been reached," he said.

Bryza said the mediators were bridging the gap between the two countries for an agreement, but that the final deal would likely provide for a vote "that reflects the genuine will of the populations".

"What we are trying to do is incorporate self-determination through a voting process on Nagorno-Karabakh's final legal status, but in a way that for the foreseeable future has no impact on Azerbaijan's territorial integrity."

Turkey-Armenia thaw

Turkey and Armenia agreed in April on a "road map" deal for U.S.-backed talks that could lead to the normalization of ties and the opening of their border, which Ankara closed in a show of support to Baku in 1993 after Armenian occupation of Azeri territories in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region.

Turkish officials, however, have said Turkey will not open its border with Armenia before the neighboring country ends its occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh, reassuring Azeri leaders that Ankara's efforts to reconcile with Yerevan would not undermine the country's interests.

Bryza, also closely involved in the Turkey-Armenia roadmap, said the processes were separate, but running in parallel. Asked if Turkey would only reopen the border once Armenia makes concessions on Nagorno-Karabakh, he replied:

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"I do not know if that's right," he said.

But added: "Where there is unanimity, is that we all say we need to see a breakthrough on Nagorno-Karabakh and significant progress as soon as possible, and that's the way to make sure all these processes move forward smoothly."