- There is a great deal of oil in northern Iraq. Mosul and Kirkuk…
- The United States told Turkey to stay away from the region; but Turkey insisted. In response, the U.S. gave the go nod to the president of the autonomous Kurdish administration of northern Iraq, Massoud Barzani; they loosened his leash. The PKK got support and the attacks against Turkey increased. Barzani became arrogant.
Right about that time the U.S. softened its stance towards Turkey and allowed Turkey to organize strikes against the PKK.
According to this scenario the agreement appears to be:
- Turkey will strike PKK camps in northern Iraq. Barzani will cut his logistic support to the PKK and also end the complaisance policy holds toward it. In response, Turkey will recognize Barzani, and naturally, the regional Kurdish administration. It will establish relations with the regional administration and trade will begin.
Then what will happen to Mosul and Kirkuk?
Turkey voiced its concerns over a Kurdish state that has grown powerful through oil. They are working on a formula that removes these concerns.
Turkey first needs to sit at the table with the Iraqi President Jalal Talabani and Barzani before such a formula can be realized.
Turkey struck the PKK. Talabani promised Turkey’s pro-Kurdish Democratic Society Party (DTP) that he would support the DTP should the PKK lays down its arms.
Barzani is preparing to sit at the table.
Therefore, we will recognize Barzani, in return for permission to bomb the PKK. Our voice on Mosul and Kirkuk is beginning to decline. The red-line is starting to blur and we are beginning to grey.
That is what happened. It is the beginning of a new era.