Iran tests more missiles, study urges U.S. to pursue long-term policies

Washington, which fears Tehran wants to master technology to build nuclear weapons, said after Iran test-fired nine missiles on Wednesday that Tehran should halt further tests if it wanted to gain the world's trust, Reuters reported.

Speculation that Israel could bomb Iran has mounted since a big Israeli air drill last month. U.S. leaders have not ruled out military options if diplomacy fails to end the nuclear row.

Iran has responded by saying it will strike back at Tel Aviv, as well as U.S. interests and shipping, if it is hit. Tehran insists its nuclear programme has only civilian goals.

Iran has said missiles fired during wargames under way in the Gulf included ones that could hit Israel and U.S. bases.

U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said on a visit to the former Soviet republic of Georgia that Washington would defend American interests and those of its allies.

"We take very, very strongly our obligation to help our allies defend themselves and no one should be confused about that," Rice said after meeting Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili.

After Iran's missile tests on Wednesday, Rice suggested its actions justified U.S. plans for an anti-missile shield with bases in eastern Europe, a project Russia strongly opposes.

 

LONG-TERM POLICIES

A military strike on Iran would be unlikely to force changes in Tehran's nuclear policy, the RAND research organization said on Thursday in an analysis recommending long-term policies to deal with the country. Â

The United States is leading international efforts to rein in Iran's suspected effort to develop nuclear weapons. Tehran says its nuclear program is for purely civilian energy purposes.

The U.S. should pursue a mixed strategy toward Iran, using a variety of means to promote favorable social developments within the country and at the same time exploiting vulnerabilities in the nation's political, economic and demographic conditions, according to the study issued by the RAND Corporation, a nonprofit research organization.

"The United States can use Iran's vulnerabilities to advance U.S. goals, but expectations should be kept low," said Keith Crane, the study's lead author and a senior economist at RAND.

"This is going to be a long-term proposition. Although economic and social forces within Iran are pushing for liberalization, the current regime has been able to maintain its hold on power.

"Iran's vulnerabilities are 'not extraordinary' and have become less severe over the last decade as Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and other Iranian leaders have consolidated their power."

Despite hostile rhetoric expressed by Iranian leaders toward the United States, Iranian society has a generally favorable view of the United States, partly because there is a large population of Iranians living in America, Crane said.

"Although it faces many problems, the current Iranian regime is likely to resist external pressure for change. It may, however, become more democratic over time, as economic, political and demographic pressures from within force the government to respond to popular desires for a more democratic state."

The RAND report is based upon an assessment of the ethnographic, political and economic literature about Iran, in addition to official Iranian government statements and monitored blogs maintained by Iranians. Economic assessments from the Central Bank of Iran and the International Monetary Fund also were a part of the material assessed.

The study recommends that U.S. policy should be crafted with the goals of fostering conditions for a more democratic Iranian society, weakening the ability of the Iranian government to crack down on dissenters, and penalizing the Iranian government for policies that harm the United States.

Crane and his colleagues concluded that military action against Iran is likely to have negative effects for the United States. Unlike pre-war Iraq, the United States cannot count on support from Iran's ethnic minorities, even though many Iranians are unhappy with clerical rule and several minority groups have faced decades of oppression.

While Iran's population is comprised of many ethnicities, Iranians have a strong national identity and not likely to support any regime change imposed by outside forces, according to researchers.

However, Iran does face a number of internal challenges that could push the state along a more-democratic path, researchers added. The number of young people in the labor market has risen by 80 percent over the last 10 years, the result of a population explosion during the 1980s. Iranians also face some of the highest urban housing costs relative to income in the world and inflation runs in the double-digits.

"In addition, Iranians are disgusted with high levels of corruption, which have contributed to a skewed distribution of wealth. The Iranian economy is inflexible, due to a highly inefficient system of price supports and subsidies. Despite being rich in oil, the nation's economic policies have kept many Iranians poor."

Photo: Reuters