Top economy officials say Turkey headed for tougher times

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Top economy officials say Turkey headed for tougher times
OluÅŸturulma Tarihi: Nisan 24, 2008 13:21

Economy officials said on Thursday Turkey's economy faces challenges arising from the toughening global environment, but it is in better shape compared to the past. Michael Deppler, head of the IMF's European department, said the next two years would be tough for Turkey, while Turkish Economy Minister Mehmet Simsek told, Turkey is sensitive to shrinking global credit and will be "somewhat" affected by it.

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The IMF retreited its cautious approach and an official with the Fund said the global environment will be tougher for Turkey over the next two years than it was in the past. "I am on the pessimistic side. We expect a mild recesssion in the U.S.", IMF's European department head, Michael Deppler, said in his speech at ForumIstanbul.

 

Deppler added Turkey's inflation will be higher than hoped, and the rise in energy and raw material costs will negatively effect the price stability. Turkish consumer prices rose 0.96 percent month-on-month in March, compared with a 0.68 percent forecast, for a year-on-year rise of 9.15 percent.

 

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The government has a year-end target of 4 percent inflation. The Turkish central bank has less room to maneuvre as growth slowed despite the rise in inflation.

 

Turkish economic growth will be below expectations for the next two years, returning to a trend of around 6 percent after 2009, Treasury Undersecretary Ibrahim Canakci said during his speech at the conference.

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He also said growth was seen at 4.5 percent this year, versus the targeted 5.5 percent, and that Turkey had recorded an average growth rate of 6.8 percent during the last five years.

 

Turkish top economy official, however, sounded more optimistic, underlining the economy is in better shape now.  Economy Minister Mehmet Simsek said Turkey is sensitive to shrinking global credit and will be "somewhat" affected by it.

 

"But fiscal discipline and strong banks will mitigate the impact, and Turkey will be less affected by the credit crunch thanks to a reduction in the budget deficit, the build-up of reserves and a strong banking system."

 

Turkey has proportionally one of the largest current account deficits in emerging markets, which has contributed to a 10 percent fall in the value of the lira currency this year.

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