PKK elimination plans and the process

Turkish diplomats have repeated how important this step was. In my article yesterday I drew attention to the fact that the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, elimination process has started. Today I want to talk about how this process will take place, about who will take part and when a result is to be expected.

What needs to be known upfront is that there are two main actors in this scenario. One is Turkey and the other is the northern Iraqi Kurds. Then there are side actors. These are headed by the United States. One other effective actor is the Iraqi central administration, i.e. Baghdad. There is no written document or plan. Only ideas. They say, "It would be good if you do this, and we will do that." Then new ideas emerge. It will proceed this way. Let me give a more concrete example.

There is talk about steps that will be taken by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the MIT, the General Staff and the government in Ankara. The start of TRT 6, the prime minister speaking a Kurdish word, the president throwing flowers to the northern Iraqi administration all are perceived as steps. In exchange the northern Iraqi administration must have told the PKK that it needs to stop attacks in Turkey because there has been no incident in the past few months. These steps will continue. How long will this go on? This is not for sure yet. The most critical and the most tangled part here is bringing down the PKK from the mountains.

There are two segments of the PKK. One is the militant followers and the other is the leadership. There are two choices to bring the militant followers down from the mountains. Either Turkey has to be more flexible in the application of the current amnesty law and ensure those who descend from the mountains are sent home instead of sent to jail, or else it needs to pass a new law. The government does not approve of a new law. It insists on a change of the application of the current law.

The former practice abroad of catching and delivering the leaders to Turkey is changing. It becomes apparent that the government will close its eyes to these people immigrating to various European countries. The most important turning point of this process will be the Kurdish conference in April or May to be assembled by the northern Iraqi administration leader Massoud Barzani.

During this conference there will be an appeal made to the PKK to put down its weapons. If the PKK does not obey this appeal then Barzani will take up the matter. And what will Turkey do in exchange? Everything is mutual. Ankara needs to do something in return. This will be taking steps toward the amnesty and Kurdish issue. At the moment details are discussed between Washington, Arbil, Baghdad and Ankara. How long will these efforts last?

Nobody can give an exact date regarding this matter. As a matter of fact, it is not for sure whether or not this process will be successful. For, this upswing could change anytime or calculations could go wrong and this process would fail. Nobody can say anything definite. Those who know and influence this process told me and I always keep it in mind:

"For the first time the function of the PKK started to decrease. The PKK in itself and those supporting it want terror to end. For the first time we have entered a hopeful process." I too want to be hopeful. But let’s not forget that conditions might change at any minute.