Is the plan to eliminate the PKK real?

Relations with Barzani have been improved. Even the National Security Council, or MGK, has suggested an investment in northern Iraq and increase of trade therein. Afterward, the administration has taken important steps in TRT-6 and the Kurdish issue. The start has been given for Kurdish departments at universities. By the way, the PKK ceased its terror action all of a sudden Ğ you might think that winter has an effect on this Ğ and after Clinton’s visit to Ankara, as President Gül was leaving for Tehran he attracted much attention when he said that "good things" will happen this year regarding the Kurdish issue and placed the "plan for elimination of the PKK" back on the agenda after many years of talk.

First Yasemin Çongar from the daily Taraf then Mehmet Faraç from the daily Cumhuriyet wrote about it.

According to them, the Iraqi Autonomous Kurdish Administration will meet for a Kurdish conference. During this conference a manifesto will be prepared regarding the "disarmament of Kurds" and signed by parties in agreement. In the meantime, Turkey will take some steps as well. It will announce an act of grace and allow some PKK leaders to leave for some European countries. In exchange, PKK members will put down their weapons.

Maybe you’ll remember, some time ago the United States and some European countries were talking about similar plans. For example, Henri Barkey was talking about a plan in this manner. Even which PKK leader was going to leave for which country was known. But this was not been put into action.

Now there is a similar endeavor on its way.

If we were to tell the truth, the new plan is more likely to be put in action compared to the old plan. But this time roles are different. Some part of the Kurds and Turkey are more comfortable with this solution. But there are still some people opposing it, of course.

Let’s start with Turkey’s front É

In Ankara it is clearly accepted that it is difficult to get rid of the PKK terror by using arms. It is known that the PKK will not get far with its terror. Especially the military states that, according to statistics on hand, PKK operations are no good for anything else but destroying the environment, killing people, and in other words creating tension. They are stating that the PKK has lost its initiative compared to the 1995 period. Despite this, Ankara is looking for a solution. For, blood is being shed and the dissatisfaction of people in the region needs to be eliminated in some way or another. Ways are being sought for banning terror in the Southeast and turning the region into a place "where people can live together in peace." But the government is not ready to make huge concessions just to find a way.

In summary, politicians and the military are more willing compared to the past. Also, the public is more willing compared to the past.

PKK knows it won’t get far with weapons

From Turkey’s point of view the most annoying part is "what will these steps be?" If in the Constitution it is persisted on changes in the lines of the DTP or on formulations having a trace of federation in them, we would be spending our time in vain. No political administration would or could take such a step.

Of course, it is also important what the PKK will do. What is the assurance for giving up arms? Who would do what if the PKK erases its name and continues with its terror under a different name?

As you see, the Kurdish front is much more important É

The PKK is aware of plans to eliminate it.

What’s more important is that the PKK is being progressively forced into a corner. You’ll notice as soon as you follow their announcements or listen to conversations over transmitters or look at their internal struggle. The organization knows that it won’t get anywhere with arms. From what they know they feel this reality more closely with each passing day. Shedding blood makes them feel better temporarily, but that is about it. They cannot go beyond this.

They have no success before the military. There is no way. Nobody will obtain anything by killing people remotely. They have not gained a political concession or advantage.

If we were to look at past deeds and obtained results, then the weakness of today’s situation becomes apparent.

The only thing they were successful in is that they have not yet been discharged by weapons. And this thanks to Qandil Mountains in northern Iraq. Whereas you see the situation there is not the best either. Signals for improvement in the relationship between Barzani and Turkey are quite annoying for the PKK. This situation will spread. The PKK is aware that one day it won’t be able to walk around as it pleases. As a matter of fact, Duran Kalkan, among the leaders of the PKK, complains about an isolation of the PKK in northern Iraq.

If we look from this angle, it is quite normal most PKK leaders at least want to come to an agreement with Turkey, put down their weapons and disband the organization. Their sole aim is to find an opportunity to save themselves and take shelter in another country.

But let’s not forget, that another group within the PKK under these circumstances will change names and continue its path. They will not surrender and try to further feed on terror.

I don’t think they will be successful. An agreement between Ankara, Arbil and Washington will break off the PKK and cause other groups formed in place of the PKK to stay weak. They won’t be very effective. As you see, the realization of this agreement, which is said to eliminate the PKK, looks easy and difficult. Attractive and scary. I will be happy if this agreement comes into effect. But I can’t say that my hopes are high.