Economy’s rudder

The summer months are going to be very hot for Turkey. Although we got lots of rain in March and April and still in May the weather is not so warm. The political and economical atmospheres all are getting warmer gradually. With the Cabinet reshuffle and six new ministers being appointed in charge of the economy, now everybody is talking about economics. As a couple of indicators turned out to be positive, some started even asking if in fact the global crisis had bypassed Turkey.

First and foremost, we have to study the recent ministerial appointments. Some think the appointment of the foreign minister to the post of boss of the Turkish economy is a success.

But for others, myself included, the appointment means the signal for an early election as the mentioned personality has never come forward with strong ideas or never put himself to the forefront. With the recent government reshuffle, it is obvious that the Justice and Development Party, or AKP, is preparing for early elections in 2011 with the aim to win again. It is also obvious that the prime minister, his ministers of industry and finance and the other newly appointed three ministers will successfully manage their duties vis-a-vis the economy.

In a nutshell, this group that is in charge of the economy will never dare take radical decisions and will try to satisfy everybody within the AKP and its supporters.

In Turkey if you try to make the necessary reforms in the infrastructure of the economy, some will be deeply disturbed. During the last seven years, the two AKP governments enjoyed a abundance of international credit. But recently the instability in the production and consumption equation and with the global economic crash the Turkish economy's downward slide began. If the AKP, which won two consecutive elections, had made the necessary structural reforms today, all of us would be in a comfortable position.

The ones who drew rosy pictures during the heyday of the economy are still retaining their posts today. I am ready to be mistaken. I hope they will do something in the next two years. Although the economic issue has to top Turkey's agenda, the government and the president are insistently changing the agenda.

The recent example is, the following slogans they use: "Let's not miss the chance" and "Constitutional amendment." The unemployment rate in Turkey has reached the 30 percent level today. If you say, "If the rate of unemployment is 30 percent why don't we have any social outbursts? Everybody seems happy with their way of life," it means you are blind. To look only at the number of judicial cases is enough to tell you the state of social instability we are in. Also there are incidents that have not become court cases. In big cities everybody is carrying guns and any time you may witness a gunfire exchange in the middle of a street. Many car drivers are carrying baseball bats to protect themselves against a potential attack.

You switch on the TV and see people fighting with each other. Every morning looking out of the window I watch and listen to the drivers’ foul language. There is a direct link between economic stability and a peaceful and secure way of life. The important thing is to increase the public level of wealth. On the other hand, lying with statistics we present a fake rosy picture. Another point is pumping people with make-believe funds and putting them into debt, misleading them to believe their artificial wealth will be sustainable forever. That's why people commit suicide for 10,000 liras of debt.

Take a look at the market. How many people really pay back their debts and how many people simulate payment? It is predicted that the U.S. economy will enter a period of recuperation by 2010 followed by the EU countries in 2011. I wonder whether we in Turkey will follow suit or continue on the same path until the elections. EU countries seem to partly abandon the free market economy in favor of a more public model as we in Turkey seem to be in a state of limbo.

The weather is getting warmer. The best thing for us to do, it seems, is to go out in the sun and get warm.