Changing roles, new reckonings

However, this piece will not examine Davutoğlu’s diplomacy or prospects about the future of some very important challenges awaiting the country ahead. But rather, it will try to decipher how his appointment would change the roles of the senior government officials and even of President Abdullah Gül.

Davutoğlu had enjoyed a very comfortable position between 2002 and 2009, until he became the minister. He was the main behind-the-scene figure shaping Turkish foreign policy with the advantage of being so close to both Gül (when he was foreign minister) and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. The election of Gül and Ali Babacan’s appointment as his successor did not change the system much. Davutoğlu was again at the center of the foreign policy but Gül’s influence did increase in line with his new position as the head of the state.

But with Davutoğlu becoming the foreign minister, this picture is likely to be altered in a way that would result in a lighter position for Gül in the guidance of the foreign policy. (It’s no secret that President Gül’s some initiatives in the foreign policy disturbed Erdoğan. Meeting with the non-governmental organizations and state institutions to push the EU talks, giving the image of the mastermind of talks with Yerevan in his historical visit to this country could be listed as some unilateral attempts of Gül.)

Therefore Davutoğlu’s promotion to this seat would work toward Erdoğan’s advantage for two reasons. The first is that Davutoğlu will obviously seek cooperation with the presidency but will not let him steal his role, which would lessen presidential influence over government’s foreign policy. The second is that Davutoğlu’s entry, along with Bülent Arınç and Ömer Dinçer, two influential personalities of the Justice and Development Party, or AKP, would strengthen Erdoğan’s hands in the cabinet. A stronger cabinet would always be in the advantage of Erdoğan.

The current picture of politics does tell us that Gül could focus on two top issues apart from many others: Using his presidential influence for the new constitution and focusing on more energy diplomacy. Without forgetting the fact that there is still confusion over Gül’s tenure in his office, the constitutional amendments will be one of president’s priorities afterward. His last week meetings with the leaders of the opposition who already stated their coldness toward an AKP-made constitution could be seen as a starter. He is also expected to hold soon a meeting with Prime Minister Erdoğan on this issue to express his own impression he got from the opposition. In a way he will mediate between the government and opposition.

The second thing Gül could do is to focus more on energy diplomacy, just like he did in two consecutive energy summits in Sofia and Prague. With the appointment of Taner Yıldız as the new energy minister, Gül will surely feel more comfortable in this field too. With an active diplomacy in this field, like former president Süleyman Demirel did in 1990s, would bring him an international reputation and Turkey another international pipeline network to chain it to Europe firmly.